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The CSN labour market intelligence report shows that although recovery should begin in 2014, even by 2016 construction output will still be only 95% of its 2007 peak.
Employment in the construction industry is predicted to rise by a little over 76,000 between 2012 and 2016, to just below 2.6m, which is still nearly 5% below its 2008 peak. At just 0.6% a year, the annual average growth rate for employment is significantly below that for output (1.4%) and it disguises continuing falls to 2013 before the workforce starts to expand again, the report says.
Jobs in demand over the next five years will be wood trades and interior fit-out, construction managers and plant operators. Demand will shrink for bricklayers, electrical trades and plumbers, the report says.
Five regions are expected to outperform the UK average in construction output terms over the five years to 2016 – the East of England (2.9%), Greater London (2.5%), the Southeast (2.2%), the Southwest (2.2%) and Northern Ireland (2.1%) – while Wales and Scotland should see growth close to the UK average (1.4%). Two regions are predicted to experience annual average output declines over the forecast period, the North West (-0.9%) and the West Midlands (-1.1%).
The report says that private housing, and the industrial and commercial sectors will continue to be the main drivers for the industry over the next five years, with private housing and industrial continuing to grow at more than 4%, although commercial will now drop to just below 4%.
In contrast public housing and public non-housing will continue to contract at -6.3% and -9.1% respectively.
Energy and the environment will continue to be key considerations for the industry, with the UK due to lose around 25% of its energy capacity over the next 10 years. This will represent a significant challenge for the construction industry. It is over 25 years since we saw the last nuclear power station built in the UK and carbon-zero new build will require different and innovative methods of construction.
The full 23-page report can be seen here.
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