The Construction Skills Network report is the industry’s annual skills forecast prepared by CITB-ConstructionSkills with input from employers across the UK.
With 60,000 jobs lost, and a 9% fall in output, 2012 saw UK construction tip back deep into recession, the report says, and there is little cheer ahead.
For the next five years nearly every sector of the industry will continue to struggle, it says. Only the private housing, repair & maintenance and industrial sectors are predicted to achieve anything like consistent growth.
Consequently, construction employment is predicted to fall every year until 2017, reaching a low of 2.36m – the lowest employment level in the industry since 2000.
Recruitment to the industry is predicted to run at an average of 29,050 a year from now until 2017 – largely to fill vacancies arising from those leaving the sector. Across the UK only Greater London and the east of England can expect to see employment grow in this period.
Wales, Greater London and the northeast are predicted to show the greatest increase in output during 2013-17, the northeast is recovering from sharp declines in previous years, and much of the growth in Wales is linked to the Wylfa nuclear power build.
In contrast, the construction industry in the northwest, the midlands and Yorkshire & Humberside is expected to shrink still further.
CITB-ConstructionSkills deputy chairman Judy Lowe said: “Construction found itself at the heart of a ‘perfect storm’ in 2012 – hit hard by a combination of public sector spending cuts and a lack of investment in the private sector. Client and consumer confidence is low and it is keeping growth levels down.
“Worryingly, the outlook doesn’t look much better – by 2017, construction output will still be 12% down on its 2007 peak, and employment 17% down on its peak in 2008. Indeed, we don’t anticipate the industry returning to its former levels until at least 2022 – meaning this will be one of the most difficult periods for construction on record.
“Construction is a vital engine of UK growth. While construction struggles for its survival, it’s impossible to see how the UK economy can generate significant growth.”
She continued: “There are currently over 150,000 unemployed construction workers. This potentially costs the economy £2.1bn a year in unemployment benefit and lost tax revenue.”
Steve Murphy, general secretary of construction union Ucatt, said: “These latest figures make grim but all too predictable reading. The construction industry is struggling as a direct result of government policies. The government, the largest client in the construction industry, has cut spending at a time when the private sector has been unable to fill that gap. This has been catastrophic for construction workers who have needlessly lost their jobs.”
Mr Murphy added: “Rather than destroying people’s lives the government needs to invest in the future, starting with a social house building programme which will provide desperately needed homes, get skilled workers back to work and help get the industry back on its feet.”
The full Construction Skills Network (CSN) report is available at www.cskills.org.
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