Ten years ago the then Labour government commissioned economist Kate Barker to investigate housing supply. The Barker Review of Housing Supply warned at least 210,000 private homes a year were needed in England to avert a housing crisis.
In the 10 years since then, an average of just 115,000 homes a year have been built, putting the country one million homes behind Barker’s identified requirement. As well as leaving families homeless, the shortage also pushes up prices and makes homes less affordable, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) notes.
Based on Kate Barker’s original estimates and population changes since then, a new report from the HBF now estimates that achieving Barker’s objective of ‘reducing the long-term trend’ and gradually pricing households back into the market would now require 260,000 private housing starts a year.
Achieving Barker’s most ambitious objective of ‘improving the housing market’ would require 320,000 private sector starts per year – which is three times the number built last year and a figure achieved in only four years since World War II
Even achieving the least ambitious of Barker’s three objectives, to slow down the rate at which households are priced out of the market, would require more than 200,000 private starts per year – a figure last achieved in 1973.
In recent months, all indicators are showing a significant increase in house building activity, largely as a result of the government’s Help to Buy equity loan scheme. But at its conference this week, HBF is warning all political parties need to prioritise policies that will allow these increases to be sustained. As the next general election approaches in 2015, HBF is lobbying for all parties to:
- commit to the Help to Buy equity loan scheme that is driving demand
- ensure planning policies continue to develop such that enough land comes forward for the number of homes we need
- ensure the regulatory environment is realistic and practical and does not make house building sites unviable.
HBF executive chairman Stewart Baseley said: “The Barker Review was a seminal report for housing and starkly illustrated the scale of the emerging crisis. Since then successive governments have failed to pay heed and develop policies to deliver the homes the country needs.
“Whilst the Help to Buy equity loan scheme is finally starting to drive demand and significantly increase supply, we start from a very low base and the shortfall is huge.
“As we approach a general election, we now need to see all parties committing to policies that lead to a sustained increase in house-building. We have to build our way out of the crisis. Building the homes the country needs will provide the decent homes people deserve and create hundreds of thousands of jobs.”
Got a story? Email news@theconstructionindex.co.uk
