Last year Experian was forecasting that construction output would actually grow 1.1% in 2011, but government spending cuts are now starting to bite. The public housing and public non-residential building sectors are expected to bear the brunt.
For 2010 Experian had forecast a decline in output of 1.9% but now says that there was a 4.8% growth last year.
Experian has also changed its position on 2012. It is now forecasting another year of decline, with output falling 0.4%. Its previous forecast was for 2.4% growth in 2012.
Instead we will now have to wait until 2013 for the industry to return to growth, when output will improve by 5.1%.
Experian’s position is broadly in line with – although gloomier than – the Construction Products Association (CPA). Last month we reported that the CPA economists forecast a decline in output of 2% for 2011 and no recovery until 2013.
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