January 2024’s Future Trends Survey from the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA) is in negative territory for the seventh month in a row.
This is the longest run of negativity since the RIBA Future Trends began in 2009.
On the plus side, January was not as bad as December, with the RIBA Future Trends Workload Index rising from minus nine to minus eight.
January’s findings show that over the next three months 18% of architect practices expect workloads to increase, 26% expect them to decrease, and 52% expect them to stay the same.
As usual, it is the small practices that are the gloomiest. The outlook for small practices (1-10 staff) improved slightly, rising by five points to -10, while the outlook of medium (11+ staff) and large (50+ staff) practices fell by 27 points to a combined figure of +3.
All monitored work sectors retained a negative outlook on future work, although none deteriorated. The outlook for the Private Housing sector improved by 4 points to -12, the Commercial (-5) and Public (-9) sectors held steady, and the Community sector rose by 1 point to -8.
The RIBA Future Trends Permanent Staffing Index held steady in January at minus two, indicating that practices expect their permanent staff numbers to decrease.
Over the next three months, 8% of practices expect to employ more permanent staff, 10% expect to employ fewer, and 83% expect no change.
RIBA head of economic research and analysis Adrian Malleson said: “Amid raised interest rates and a weak UK economy, for the seventh consecutive month, architects expect workloads to fall – the longest period of pessimism since the survey began in 2009.
“Persistently above-target inflation, and difficulties for clients obtaining finance, continue to weigh on workloads, while the poor performance of the housing sector continues to impact smaller practices.
“These issues are exacerbated by ongoing planning delays. Many practices stress failures in the planning system, which are delaying project progress, diminishing practice revenue, and holding back the UK's economic prosperity. Practices also report downward pressure on fees, with a number reporting domestic clients seeking free early-stage design and planning advice.”
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