Despite global decarbonisation efforts, it seems that the world will still be consuming more cement in 25 years’ time than it did 20 years ago.
However, that cement is likely to have less embodied carbon than today.
The World Cement Association (WCA) is forecasting that global cement demand is likely to decline from 4.1bn tonnes a year in 2023 to 3bn tonnes by 2050.
Global cement production peaked at 4.4bn tonnes in 2021, falling back to 4.1bn tonnes in 2022 and 2023. China accounts for roughly half of global cement production.
Back in the year 2000, global production was 1.6bn tonnes and in 2005 it was 2.3bn.
The WCA paper, Long-term forecast for cement and clinker demand, highlights industry changes driven by decarbonisation, technological advancements and market dynamics. It says that clinker demand, the main source of CO₂ emissions in cement production, is expected to decrease to 1.5bn tonnes a year 2050.
The need for carbon capture and storage (CCS) will consequently be reduced, impacting investment and policy priorities, it says.
“The cement industry is undergoing an unprecedented transformation,” said WCA chief executive Ian Riley, author of the report. “As we move towards a decarbonised future, understanding the true demand for cement and clinker is critical to ensuring that policies, technologies, and investments align with reality. This white paper aims to provide industry leaders and policymakers with the clarity needed to plan effectively and sustainably.”
The report also examines disruptive factors such as alternative materials, supply chain optimisation, and clinker-free technologies, which are reshaping demand patterns.
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